time for a couple e-mails. what have you got? >> chris writes awake trying to unload 600 pounds of bacon after a favorite tv i go said there was a shortage coming. how many pounds for geist? >> you laugh it pup. when that bacon shortage hits, i'm going to be the smart and rich guy with all the bacon. one more. >> dave writes, i'm awake to see whether rex ryan thinks a butt kicking would be better facilitated with tim tebow on the field. >> he doesn't think so. says he's going to stick with mark sanchez. i have a feeling that's coming up right now on "morning joe." it starts right now. up until now, governor, he has failed to enumerate any of the deductions that he would eliminate in order to make the math work on his deficit plan and his tax plan. are we going to get those details in the course of the debate? >> well, you know, david, i wish you guys were just as tough on the president. the president says he's going to create a million new manufacturing jobs.

he doesn't say how. he says he's going to reduce the long-term debt and deficit by $4 trillion. doesn't say how he's going to do it. you know, let's be fair here. governor romney has laid out a direction and a vision for the direction of this country. he's not an accountant. he's not going to go line by line as much as you'd like him to do through the budget. but let's hold the president to the same standard and criticize him as well. good morning, it is monday, october 1st. it's october, everybody. welcome to "morning joe." >> yeah, you know who's glad september's over? >> who? >> the jets. holy cow! >> i thought you were going to say mitt romney. with us on set, we have msnbc and "time" senior political editor mark halperin and national affairs editor for "new york" magazine john heilemann. guys. hi, willie. >> hello. >> it's not as bad as being a red sox fan, but if you're a jets fan right now, holy cow! tebow's like, you know, he's

getting ready. >> he should have been ready. i don't know why they kept sanchez in the whole game. 103 yards, less than 50% passing, one interception and frankly wasn't close. it was a strange thing to watch. >> it was absolutely brutal. and then, of course, the yankees, man. that playoff race. >> ooh. >> you remember what i said at the beginning of the year? i said the red sox -- we only want to be ahead of the orioles. we all laughed. it's tied! >> and the red sox have a chance to spoil the yankees' season. so that might be a saving grace, at the end of this miserable year, they have three games in new york, they could ruin the yankees' scene. >> john heilemann, as a fellow red sox fan, you and i would take no pleasure out of the red sox destroying the yankees' season. despite the fact that the yankees -- >> speak for yourself there. >> 7-0. and i just remind any boston red sox that are crawling out of the gutter this morning, 162nd game

of the year last year, the yankees ahead 7-0. and if they win that, we're in the playoffs and they tank it for us. >> yes, that's right. yeah, i think we'll take no small amount of pleasure. you've got to take your pleasures where you get them this season, joe, and hurting the yankees would be just a little bit of pleasure. >> mark halperin, chris christie coming in, talking about the debate, also talking about how the press needs to ask tough questions of the president. but chris christie didn't get the memo that you're supposed to downplay expectations. yesterday he said his first debate was going to be a game changer. >> well, i don't think it really matters. people are making a little bit of a big deal about what he said. i think what matters is governor romney needs to close the gap on what i call the tug mcgraw principle, which is you've got to believe. he needs republicans and the press and independent voters to believe he can win. a lot of new polls out this morning. they all show, when this question's asked, people don't think romney's going to win,

even a lot of people who support him think the president's going to win. i think that's one of the main things, stand with the president and convince people yeah, he's got a chance. >> you hear more and more people talking about the first debate being critical and it is with all the early voting going on, with the advantage that the president's taking in a lot of swing states, even fox news polls showing him ahead. with all the early voting going on, with the spread being what it is in ohio, a "columbus dispatch" poll came out this weekend, i think it's a nine-point race according to the local paper there, he's got to do very well in this first debate, and i think he can do it. >> there is the possibility. he is a good debater. to politics in just a moment. first breaking news from afghanistan. local officials tell nbc news that three american troops are among the 14 people killed this morning in a suicide bombing. the taliban is claiming responsibility for the attack. it follows a grim milestone over

the weekend where the killing of an american serviceman late saturday pushed the total number of u.s. military deaths in the 11-year war to 2,000. officials say the troops' death on saturday appeared to be the result of another insider attack. as of this past weekend, there have been 52 coalition troops killed from insider attacks in afghanistan so far this year. >> willie, we've been talking about it for some time. what a milestone. what a terrible, terrible milestone. and it seems a tragedy just keeps growing by the day there. the troops we're supposed to be training to take over are turning their guns on u.s. servicemen and killing them. >> 2,000 americans dead. $570 billion. we sound like a broken record. we say it every time one of these stories comes up. but again i ask, is this what the next two years and change is going to look like in afghanistan? are we prepared to go through at least 2 1/2 more years of this with the withdrawal date at the end of 2014?

because it's not going to end. >> we thought it was possible at the beginning of this presidential race that there might be a republican knee who would be to the president's left, and we don't have that. we have a guy who is muchly on his right who talks about keeping troops there but not with enough specifics to give people a sense of why and what his plan is. >> what would be different. >> i tell what you, there are a lot of small-government conservatives that don't think we should be spending over $2 billion a week in afghanistan, who don't think the president should have tripled down the number of troops when he had a chance to pull back and bring those troops home. a lot of conservatives believe that. i think this is a missed opportunity. >> well, and foreign policy clearly is going to be an area where mitt romney will want to make a turn in terms of the narrative of the campaign. one other issue that is now coming into the forefront is the benghazi attack and news over the weekend that the four americans including the u.s. ambassador there who were killed according to politico, romney

advisers are now split over how broadly they should hit the president over his handling of that attack. and why it took so long to acknowledge that it was an act of terrorism. while some romney advisers argue they should keep their focus on the economy, politico says plans are in the works for mitt romney to deliver a major foreign policy speech shortly after wednesday's debate. what do you think of that? you think he should do that? >> yes. i think, as i said, right after the killing, that wasn't the time to talk about this. >> right. >> now is the time, several weeks later, to talk about it. john heilemann, the lead in "the new york times," mistake in faith and security seen at libya mission before benghazi raid. response to the june bomb raised confidence in local guards. this benghazi story is an absolute mess. i think -- i've heard stuart stevens as saying let's focus on the economy. i think stuart stevens is exactly right. americans don't care as much in

the polls about foreign policy. but several weeks later after this, i think it's very legitimate now that the press is going in and a couple of weeks have passed since the ambassador's death, now, yes. i mean, he's got a responsibility to talk about how badly the white house bungled this. >> i think he does. and indeed, you know, i think right now, the focus is a little misplaced. the notion that -- i think the white house is pretty credible in saying that they're learning more, that their initial instiblgt -- they didn't know the situation was initially, that they've explained it better as they've done intelligence assessments, but it raises the more fundamental question which is why was the consulate not secure? how was it that security issues, as opposed to their stories afterward, these are american lives at stake in an unstable region, what are the intelligence failures? what were the security failures? those are fundamental questions. >> there were intelligence failu failures, there were warnings, mark halperin, one story after

another has come out over the past several weeks. and you have the ambassador worrying about his own safety. and now you can't even send in fbi agents to investigate because they say benghazi is unstable. if that's the case, then where was the security before the attack? >> there are a lot of republican complaints in terms of liberal bias about this media campaign. some more credible than others. the president has mostly been covered as a candidate rather than as an incumbent whose record needs to be scrutinized. this is an area where there are questions, dealing with security overseas and also what are our goals in libya and are they being achieved in the right way? that line of argument and attack with press scrutiny and mitt romney making the case should be part of the debate. and i think will be because this story does have a lot of unanswered questions. >> mika, as we've been saying

for some time both on and off the air, if the president was george w. bush and he had said that the middle east going up in flames was a, quote, bump in the road, george w. bush would have been absolutely skewered by the press. >> at the same time, is it fair to say that the romney campaign and mitt romney himself have seized upon things too quickly and almost looked a little almost like a dog pulling on someone's leg? >> they've been hand-fisted. >> let me ask you this. >> they made a mistake. in fact, even internally inside the romney campaign, they know now that the libyan press conference, the day after, they will all tell you, was an absolute mistake, and that showed up in the polls. >> here's my question, then. because congressman peter king is calling on susan rice to step down, to resign as u.s. ambassador to the u.n. and yesterday, here's the response as they try and move forward and turn the majpage. congressman paul ryan and paul

mccain. take a look at this approach. >> the response was slow. it was confused. it was inconsistent. they first said that it was a youtube video and a spontaneous mob. we now know that it was a planned terrorist attack. if this was one tragic incident, that would be a tragedy in and of itself. the problem is it's part of a bigger picture of the fact that the obama foreign policy is unraveling literally before our eyes on our tv screens. >> i think it interferes with the depiction that the administration is trying to convey, that al qaeda is on the wane, that everything's fine in the middle east. >> you think it's political? >> i think there are certain political overtones. how else could you trot out our u.n. ambassador to say it was spontaneous? >> maybe it was. >> five days later? that doesn't pass the smell test. it was ever ignorance or willful intelligence. >> whether you agree with him or

not, senator mccain has the credibility, a war hero, with great experience in washington dealing with foreign policy, how do you think, though, paul ryan did with that? is that turning the page? did that ring true? does that ring as credible saying president obama's foreign policy is unraveling? did that work? >> there is a time and a place for everything. the day after an ambassador's death is not the time to rush out and hold a press conference in america. and by the way, i said the same thing. well, i thought democrats were shameless during the iraq war. but here we are, how many weeks later? >> i'm asking if it works coming from paul ryan. >> can i ask you a question? how many weeks later? >> 2 1/2. >> 2 1/2 weeks later, i think we're good because what did paul ryan say, willie? he said the response was slow. he said it was confused. and it is. and in the middle of all this, with the middle east going up in flames, the president dismisses it as a bump in the road, i think is now 2 1/2 weeks later not time to ask these questions?

i mean, the biggest problem before was they did it the morning after all of this erupted. >> yeah, it was a bad job by them on the press conference, but the larger idea, one we pointed out early on, is that it was insulting to americans to propose the idea that this was based on a youtube video that people showed up with heavy weapons, rpgs and things like that to talk about a video that, as i've said before, some mouth breather in the united states produced that 3,000 people on youtube had seen. that was the insult, that it wasn't some larger public, that they believed publicly it was based on the video. >> my bottom line, mark halperin, you look at all the polls, americans want to get back to work and want the economy to turn around. while this is an extraordinarily important story, i don't know that this, as goes benghazi, so goes toledo. i don't think so. the romney people do have a

difficult decision to make here because it's a very legitimate story. now is the time to go after it, but do americans care? >> well, if you look at the polls -- >> let me restate that. americans do care. is it going to move people from obama to romney? >> unlikely for two reasons. one is that the president is still seen as stronger on foreign policy. there's been some up and down, but in the latest polls he's still seen as pretty strong, and also people care more about the economy. i think governor romney has an obligation to talk about foreign policy, though. and the linkage is what i still think is their strongest case. why do you think the next four years would be any different than the last four years? primarily they've got to make that argument on the economy. i think making it on the arab spring and ton the middle east s not a bad political line. >> we'll get to the polls in just a second. i'll try this on you, john, do you think hearing paul ryan talk about president obama's foreign policy is going to move people from obama to romney? >> i'm not -- i don't think paul

ryan matters very much, certainly on a foreign policy story. >> do you think it worked? >> i think there's a sequence of things that's going to happen here. this links up the first two. mitt romney has a paramount goal. he must get past this first debate and still have life in this campaign. if he can get through that first debate and as mark was saying earlier, convince republicans that he's still in the race, not have his fund-raising dry up, not have all the republican outside groups abandon him as a lost cause and have a sense that he's still in the game -- >> right. >> -- he then has options how to spend the last 35 days of the campaign, on foreign policy, on the economy, prosecuting his case against the president. this all depends on wednesday night. if he walks out of that debate wednesday night with the world having concluded that this race is over, it is exactly the case that some republicans -- republicans, conservatives, the money are going to say, you're bob dole, we're done. we're going to focus on the house and senate. he's got to get past that first.

>> there is new polling on the presidential race this morning, just two days before the candidates square off in their first debate. first the national picture. according to "the washington post"/abc news poll, 49% say they would vote for obama and 47% for romney. those numbers are unmoved from early last month. >> so nationally we're in the margin of error in this poll. >> all right. in the critical swing states, the president's lead grows to 11 points among likely voters. 52% to 41%. in ohio, a state where early in-person voting begins tomorrow -- >> wow! >> -- a new "columbus dispatch" poll shows the president leading 51%-42%. in august that same poll had the two candidates tied at 45%. >> at 45%. if you want to know how badly things have gone over the past month for mitt romney, how bad september was for mitt romney, just look at the "the columbus

dispatch" poll. he's lost nine points in ohio. it's absolutely critical that he does change the narrative, he does turn things around. you know, we always talk about -- i've always talked about 1980, the final weekend, it's tied between reagan and carter. this isn't 1980 anymore. he's got to kick start it now because let's say he wins the final two weeks. he still loses the election. you can't just win on election day anymore. i mean, it starts this week, really. >> well, let's go to iowa where paul ryan will be campaigning today. "the des moines register" has the president leading 49% to 45% among likely voters, just 2% are undecided. those numbers are raising the stakes for the romney campaign ahead of wednesday's debate in denver. and right now expectations seem to be with the president. 55% of likely voters expect him to win the debate, according to polling from a the washington post and abc news. >> a poll that means absolutely

nothing. >> it's good for romney. >> because he's got lower expectations. >> underdog. >> i guess so. >> and people could be surprised simply by seeing them side by side. i mean, the symbolism, the symbiotics i don't think can be overstated. seeing them side by side, if romney does well, i think he'll get a bump no matter what the sort of intricacies are. just side by side with the president in terms of stature and in terms of people thinking he can win, on equal footing. >> willie, he does well during the debates. we saw this during the republican primary. he faced a challenge from newt gingrich, he won. he faced a challenge from rick perry. people would say hey, this is a do-or-die debate. mitt romney must prove he can deliver the knockout blow, and he did do it in the debates time and time again. >> he did look very presidential in that group. we'll see how he does next to president obama which i think is a little bit different. >> yeah. >> that ohio poll is interesting because the cbs one we had last week had it at ten points.

now we have another one showing it at nine points. if you start to look at the map, if he doesn't take iowa, if it gets away from him, it becomes difficult to put a puzzle together to win. >> by the way, there has been this narrative that there is the grand conspiracy and that the polls are skewed. this is what walter mondale said in 1984. this is what moveon.org said in 2004, that all the polls were skewed against john kerry and moveon.org said you just wait. and now you're hearing it frantically on the other side, which ironically, again, they are putting fox news in the grand conspiracy. >> what about the conference call today that we have to plan and organize? >> exactly. my point is here we've got a couple of local polls that are showing this, and more importantly, and you guys talk to the romney people all the time. i certainly talk to them all the time. i can tell you, they're not pushing back on these ohio polls. they know they are down. how far? are they five down?

six? seven? eight? yeah, probably. does anybody in the romney campaign think they're only down by a point or two in ohio? no. they know ohio is falling into troubled territory. >> and they're pretty far behind in new hampshire. they're fighting a dogfight right now in north carolina. >> yeah. >> it's october 1st. that was a state that among the swing states, that was a state that was supposed to be the relatively easy gift for romney. there's a one or two-point race in north carolina on october 1st. they're facing an uphill slide across the board and they know it. >> by the way, you can't run 30-second ads in enough places to do this. if you're going to win, if you're going to turn things around, i'll say the quote that drives liberals crazy, a rising tide lifts all boats, this first debate on wednesday, it's got to shock the campaign back to life. because if romney does well, you're not going to be able to buy enough ads to do what a great performance by mitt romney would do on wednesday night. that would tighten it in ohio.

it would tighten it in north carolina. probably go ahead in north carolina. it would tie it in iowa, probably tie it up in iowa. that's why you can't buy your way out of this mess the romney campaign is in right now, but you can outdebate them. >> more than anything else what seemed to have happened in august was democrats got enthused by their convention more than republicans did. the latest polling shows the enthusiasm gap coming back towards republicans. a git debate could juice that nationally among republicans. >> the people going out to vote is still pretty close. >> they need to turn the page. >> the polls in these swing states, and if i dismissed every other poll but local polls, fox news polls and what the romney people are saying their polls are showing, mitt romney's in trouble. again, if you just look at the locals polls, the fox news polls and the polls that the romney team has internally, mitt romney's in trouble right now. that can all change on wednesday night.

coming up, senator john mccain joins us on set. also, senator chuck schumer, "new york times" columnist frank bruni and tom brokaw. up next, mike allen up next with the top stories in the "politico playbook." first, bill karins with a check on the forecast. >> happy october, everyone. this is the month of change weatherwise, where we start to cool things off in a hurry and start to watch the leaves coming down. as we head through this month, expect a much cooler month than we've had in months past. we're looking at the middle of the country especially with below-average temperatures as we go throughout the first two weeks. now, as far as this morning goes, two big storms on the map. one has been plaguing northern new england all weekend long. the other one has been plaguing the deep south. they're both on the move today. and we are going to watch that rainy weather spreading. also severe storms are possible once again in alabama into georgia from atlanta to birmingham to montgomery, maybe even some isolated tornadoes. we'll keep an eye on that. of course, airport delays could be a problem down there. especially later on this afternoon. now, as far as what we're going

to deal with forecastwise, the heavy rain is now mostly through tennessee and kentucky. the thunderstorms are more or less slicing through alabama heading for georgia. forecast for the northeast, this is one spot that should see a decent monday. clouds will increase in washington, d.c., late today. virginia and the mid-atlantic, best chances for rain for you will be late today. and oh, by the way, if you're watching us on the west coast on october 1st, we're expecting 100-degree temperatures in los angeles, of all places. kind of a wild start to the month of october. you're watching "morning joe," we're brewed by starbucks. ♪ ♪

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time now to take a look at the -- you should stop. that's terrible. time now to -- just stop. "usa today," it's not just the presidential race that's attracting the attention of third-party groups. a new report finds between june 1st and september 8th, senate races nationwide have attracted $51.3 million from outside groups. of the 33 senate seats up for grabs this november, 21 are held by democrats. 10 are by republicans and 2 are held by independents. >> speaking of senate races, i saw a fascinating poll coming out of boston, and we'll talk about that in a little bit. also in "usa today," a new study finds children are exposed to nearly four hours of background television a day even when they're not actively watching. that number is higher among african-american kids. it's been linked to lower quality parent/child interactions and reduced performance among children on cognitive tasks. i think that's something that

should really scare all parents. having the tv on, keeping it on. and you also just don't know what your kids are hearing. you know? we'll be watching hbo. you know, what filters over, you know, on a sunday night, you've got 4-year-olds in my house, 4-year-old, 9-year-old, what are they hearing, you know, in the background. >> try and keep the tv off. "the new york times," more than 16 0 million americans are headed toward paying more taxes in 2013. about 95 million additional dollars are projected to be collected next year once the payroll tax holiday expires january 1st. analysts say the additional taxes could hurt economic output and cost the u.s. economy as many as 1 million jobs. >> and "the wall street journal," what a brutal sports story. a shocking comeback for the europeans in the ryder cup, using black magic and socialism to come back. it was terrible. it was voodoo, man.

no, really, we blew it, willie. we blew it. it was one of the biggest letdowns in ryder cup history. >> yeah. tied for the biggest single-day comeback. americans were up four points coming into sunday, almost insurmountable, but it was surmounted by the europeans and that putt. the worst part is the americans had tiger woods to close the match. he was coming up 18. you want to put it in his hands to end it. >> let tiger do it. >> before he could even do anything about it. >> one other newspaper, front page of the "usa today," ross perot, he was right, he warned us in 1992 what was coming, deficit on the debt, and it is here. and we're facing a fiscal cliff in a couple of months. the guy was right. >> he looks good, too. >> he looks good. he looks good. he got a little crazy in the middle of the campaign. >> a little bit. >> if he had stayed focused. if he had stayed focused. >> who am i and what am i doing

here? >> wouldn't that make you a little crazy? >> i think he said the black panthers were scaling the walls of his daughter's wedding. i think that's where he may have lost the philadelphia suburbs. >> that's a look at the papers. >> i think he said it was the black panthers. >> let's go to politico. >> suddenly bucks county is gone. all right. >> ninjas at the wedding. really hurts a campaign. let's go to politico now, the chief white house correspondent is mike allen with a look at his world-famous playbook. morning. >> good morning and happy fiscal new year, 2013. >> that's a romantic way to start the day. >> we are so hung over from the party last night. >> whoo! >> make sure you say that to your honey as you head out the door. >> the lead story on politico this morning, the parallel universe where mitt leads all polls. that's your headline. explain it. >> no, joe was just talking

about some of the denial that you see on the other side. and a great point that this story makes is that this is an extent of the sort of choose your own adventure approach that we now have for news. pem go to places that reflect what they think the news should be. and as a result, they're feeling the same way about polls. they make the point in here that there was a previously unknown media pollster conspiracy access that we now hear on talk radio where rush limbaugh telling listeners that these polls are designed to suppress your turnout. as you guys have been suggesting. one place that is not fooled, romney headquarters where they're clear-eyed. and joe, even beyond what you were saying a few minutes ago about the state-by-state polls, almost everywhere in every key state they now see hardening of obama support and softening of romney support. they believe that there will be public polls from virginia,

ohio, nevada. those three in particular that will show a terrible trend line. they're ahead in colorado. they say florida's in a bad place but has flattened. >> and that's why i think mike, you hear reports that inside the romney campaign, they have a no-whining rule now, don't whine about media bias. don't whine about the polls not being accurate because they know they have to be clear-eyed, and they need to understand the uphill task that's in front of them. and pointing at skewed polls, when your internal polls are showing the same thing, that only mucks things up and actually ends up hurting you in the end. >> he didn't whine, but perhaps using halperin's tug mcgraw principle, paul ryan yesterday on the sunday shows did say that there's an obvious media bias. so they're putting it out there for supporters. but what we're finding in both

republican focus groups and democratic focus groups, one topic is dominating both of those. and that is the 47% videotape. that broke through, pollsters are finding both campaigns seeing this in their focus groups in a way that nothing else has. to the point that one romney adviser told me that they think that the president may refer to it in every third answer. they believe strongly the president is going to hammer them on this videotape because everyone's talking about it in the poll -- in the focus groups. they never have to explain it. undecided voters always know what they're talking about. >> we'll hear about it directly or indirectly on wednesday night at the debate. mike allen, thanks so much. a look inside the "playbook." >> have a good fiscal year. >> thank you. >> maybe another trillion in debt. >> shooting a little too high there, joe. up next, sunday night football, giants and eagles decide it in the final moments. plus, the wrath of rex ryan. the jets smacked at home, shut

out by the 49ers. rex's post-game press conference, though, was the highlight. mike florio next. [ man ] ring ring... progresso

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you know, i apologize for my

language because i was going to say we got our butt kicked, but really we got our [ bleep ] kicked. and there's no two ways ins or outs about it. here's the recipe for getting your [ bleep ] kicked, all right? 2 for 13 on third down. that's 15%. four turnovers, a blocked punt when they rushed one guy and given up 245 yards rushing. how's that for a recipe? >> that's a good way to look at it. >> add that all together in a pie. >> that hurts, willie, when they rush one guy. >> mix it up. >> stir it up. what do you get, i will willie? >> joining us now to break down week four, the founder of profootballtalk.com, mike florio. >> good to be back. when rex ryan apologizes in advance for his language, you expect so much more. >> he was pretty composed, i

thought. so sanchez throws for 103 yards, no touchdowns, an interception. if you watched the game, he's throwing bounce passes to open receivers. how do you stay with him if you're ryan? >> you can't. they're going to stay with him another week, and it doesn't get any better because the texans come to down, they're undefeated. but at some point you have to think about making a change. it's not tim tebow, he doesn't look much better. i don't know if that gets any better between losing darrelle revis yesterday, santonio holmes yesterday, this has a recipe for a complete implosion, 4-12 type of a season, even though they're 2-2. >> except you haven't played at the tebow in the regular season. you look at what he did for the broncos last year in the regular season, don't you give him a shot before you go to greg? >> even though he hasn't looked good when he's played, you've got to put him in the first quarter. you hope your defense keeps it close and then he finds a way to work his magic near the end. you have to give that a try.

that's not why they brought him in. i think they're going to stick with sanchez stubbornly longer than they should. >> this is why lou holtz is so right, when you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. the thing is the quarterback's going to have a bad game. you've got to stick with that quarterback, ride the quarterback through the season. and then trade him at the end of the season. you know, sanchez, i don't know if it's good or bad, but every time he threw a pass, he was looking over at tebow. and it distracts you. >> i don't think that's what he was looking at. >> they've got 12 more games. if they ride him out through 12 more games, they could be in trouble. >> they could be in a position to get geno smith or matt barkley. >> they just trade him. >> so let's talk about the saints/packers. packers get jobbed on "monday night football," almost get jobbed again yesterday at home against the saints. >> it was going to be a riot. darren sproles fumbled the ball. the ball was clearly out. it wasn't clear who recovered it, but it was a bad call in realtime.

the packers didn't have any time-outs left which you need to have in order to challenge a play on replay review. but the packers held on, a missed field goal by the saints. >> this is something the replacement referees would have done, miss it clearly when the ball's out before the guy's even close to the ground. and now going forward that the real officials are back, there's going to be accountability, so they say. >> are you telling me they didn't reverse that? >> well, the thing is, the packers weren't able to challenge it. you have to have a time-out left. and they had no time-outs. and even then you have to have a clear reversal on replay, a recovery, rather. >> i know the rule there, mike, thanks so much. >> no, no, no. >> that was clear! >> you have to have clear recovery. that's my point. you have to have evidence of who got the ball. when there's a scrum, you can't do that. sorry about that. >> real quick, are the saints this bad, 0-4? >> i mean, they've been pretty much in every game. if they lose next sunday night on nbc to the chargers and go to 0-5, they have a real problem. in that same game, drew brees

could set the all-time record of consecutive games with a touchdown pass which is the nfl's equivalent of the dimaggio record. giants lose to the eagles last night. giants fans worried? >> you know, it's a long season. i mean, they should have won that game. it was some bad decision-making down the stretch, bad use of the clock. i think they should have taken another shot before that final field goal. >> are you worried, willie? >> not yet. >> boy, the eagles needed this, didn't they? >> yeah, the eagles are 3-1. >> they felt like they were 0-3. now it's a different feel. and that whole icing the kicker at the end of the game, if that blows up on andy reid, can you imagine what would be going on in philly today? >> how about the redskins, rg3. >> they struggled after that first win against the saints. in hindsight maybe it wasn't that great because the saints are winless. now they're back to 2-2, right in the thick of things, and they haven't played the other nfc east teams. >> joe's falcons. 4-0. >> hotlanta.

did you say first time ever? >> the first time ever they're 4-0. >> you mean not even under steve ba bartkowski? >> here's the thing. nobody's going to take them seriously until january. it's going to be so much pressure when the playoffs come around because they haven't delivered under matt ryan. and they could. they could run the table. >> just for the record, you say they haven't delivered in january under matt ryan. they haven't delivered in january since 1966. >> they went to the super bowl in 1998. >> dirty birds. >> and then got killed by the broncos, went out all night partying. >> in fairness. in fairness. >> no, we've had a very sad, sad playoff group, but they looked good. >> they looked very good. and character builder. they had the ball at their own 1. they drove down, got the winning field goal. >> is there a worse team in football than the dolphins? >> the browns. that's the thing. the raiders have gotten blown out a couple of times but they

have a win over the steelers which no one can figure out. >> why can't the dolphins turn it around? it's been a rough, rough stretch. >> and they were up 13-0 yesterday, and it just all fell apart. brian hartline had 252 receiving yards for the dolphins, but they still lose. >> tannehill might be good. it's early. >> that's the thing. the owner has to stay patient. i just feel like at the end of every season, he wants to press the button and blow it up and start over again. he just needs to try patience. >> i've got an idea. why don't they trade for tebow? >> or sanchez. >> and then have him on the sidelines? >> bring them all together. >> they could have the university of florida reunion in miami every week of the year. remember they did that last year and almost sold out the stadium. >> mike florio, thanks so much. >> good seeing you. coming up, we'll talk to senator john mccain. he joins us a bit later on the set. you're watching "morning joe."

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so willie, how did you spend your weekend? what did you? beautiful fall weekend. >> i actually went apple picking with my little kids. >> apple picking. really? >> did you get pictures? >> yeah, we got pictures. >> i love that. >> do you have any preserves for us? >> there are some jams. >> some jams. jellies and jams? pectin? >> was that mostly for the low-hanging fruits? >> sure. >> what's wrong with him? >> you're picking apple, you're going to your dealer. >> i don't even want to know about your weekend. >> after i went to my dealer, i spent the weekend reading your twitter feed. it was a carnival. >> it was a carnival. >> that's a good word. you know what, heileman? i'll hand it to you for getting it right. >> a veritable acts of circus

acts on my twitter feed. you picked apples. a lot of people were in their basement eating chee-tos. >> i don't think they were like you. >> bearded ladies and sword swallowers. >> exactly. so this weekend, a website started the weekend suggesting that our staff -- >> yeah. >> -- had actually doctored a tape to invent a story that would make mitt romney look goofy. we didn't. to tell you the truth, mitt kind of looks goofy when he's campaigning without our help. this story involved two seconds of video where an ohio crowd was chanting ryan. i'm not kidding you. this is how some people spent their weekend, running tape through multiple audio filters -- i'm serious. through multiple audio filters. >> i know, i saw it. i saw it. >> it's building seven. >> i saw it. >> it's building seven here, through audio filters to figure

out whether people were saying romney or ryan in 1.8 seconds. here's the clip we ran. roll it, t.j. >> wow! that's quite a guy, isn't it? that paul ryan, isn't that something? wait a second. romney, ryan, romney, ryan. >> okay. so i don't know. i heard ryan there. >> it's just all awkward. >> it's all awkward. by the way, when he says he's quite a guy, isn't it? that's what i was laughing at. here's the clip that c-span ran. >> that's quite a guy, isn't it? paul ryan, isn't that something? wait a second, wait a second. romney, ryan. romney, ryan. romney, ryan. >> okay, now, you'll notice in both clips mitt looks just as goofy which caused me to react. some people heard romney. other people heard ryan. our clip from nbc, unfiltered,

we ran it. politico heard ryan as well, and they report it had that way around 5:30 the afternoon of the event, which was what our staff followed. later "the new york times" wrote that the crowd was chanting "romney," then they followed with a correction that our staff read overnight saying kind of hard to follow what it was. this was among the chee-tos brigade as to whether i would vote for mitt romney, is trying to throw the election by filtering a tape and cracking a joke. really, guys? your conspiracy theories are getting out of hand, the poll con spercy, the fox news to throw the election for barack obama? it's getting out of hand. like this two-second frenzy is just silly. conservative blogger jazz shawl

for hotair. too many people who are ostensibly fighting for the conservative cause have chosen to concoct a conspiracy theory in which one of the conservative voices in the mainstream media is secretly trying to determine the romney campaign and facilitate president obama's re-election. call your friends and tell them why mitt romney should be president because these conspiracy theories aren't he helping the republican party. at the ends of the day it makes them silly. >> and don't accuse our staff of doctoring tapes. >> they may be drunk. >> but they're not doctoring tapes. >> sometimes, they're just coming from the halfway house, willie. >> well, there's that. >> no, they're working through the night really hard. they see a politico story. they see the headline. they see a little "times" correction, and that's the thing that bothers me the most. seriously, by the way, people going, i'm going to boycott you.

please do boycott us because the liberals who have boycotted us after i called the stimulus a steaming pile of garbage, after i was against obamacare, after i said the president didn't deliver his speech well and said i was a bigot. your boycotts have helped us have our best month ever. if we can get a boycott from the right as well as the left, i think john heilemann, we're going to be in great shape. our numbers are going to keep exploding upward. >> that is the sweet spot. >> you can take being beat up on twitter because it happens all the time, but stay away from our team. our team is the best in the business. >> seriously, they work their tails off. they do a great job. we put on a three-hour show every day. stay away from our staff. they're good people. still ahead, senator john mccain and senator chuck schumer joins us on set. we'll be right back. losing weight clicked for me when i had everything

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- you know, both parties agree. our kids can be healthier... the more you know. i've got to tell you something, the general public that i speak to in new jersey and elsewhere are just beginning to really tune into this race. and so they're going so start tuning in on wednesday night. and when they do, governor romney's going to lay out his vision for a better and greater america, for greater opportunity for all of our citizens, and i think that's when you're going to see this race really start to tighten and then move in governor romney's direction. come thursday morning, the entire narrative of this race is going to change. >> it is the top of the hour. a beautiful morning here in new york city. welcome back to "morning joe." mark halperin and john heilemann are still with us. and joining the set, nbc news's tom brokaw, good to have you

with us. >> so mika, we need some help. >> we do. >> from viewers. e-mail us. >> or tweet. >> what's the best e-mail or tweet? what's the best one for us? >> joe@msnbc.com. >> tom brokaw believes, like espn, we need to brand events, we need to brand this wednesday debate. tom, you suggested the rocky mountain rumble. i like that. we had the donnybrook in denver from mark halperin. >> and yours was? >> the mile high. >> that's just a story. we need some suggestions. >> there's our twitter address. >> but you're going, though. >> i'm on my way today. >> what are you looking for? >> i'm going to spend time with undecided voters in golden, colorado, still is a battleground state. we want to hear what they're looking for on wednesday night, what bothers them right now. these are always the people that intrigue me. i think governor christie is dead right, by the way, when he says people are now beginning to

tune in. we've been talking about this for a long time. >> they're just starting to tune in. >> they really do in the last two, three weeks. and then the last 36 hours of a campaign, they say, well, i'm going to read the papers again, talk to my friends and decide who i'm going to vote on. this is going to be a big event on wednesday night. >> so you are going to be talking to swing voters. >> before the debate. >> before the debate. what are you, as a reporter and a journalist, that have covered quite a few of these things looking for yourself? >> well, what i'm looking for, i think, which is, if you will, it's kind of where the country is. have they lost confidence in the direction of the country? who do they think they are most comfortable with in leading them through the next four years and recapturing the personal confidence that they have, the sense of economic sense that they have? and what are the issues that they think are not getting enough attention in this election? and then we'll talk as well about tone. but i really do think that the malaise in the country in terms

of -- malaise is not the right word -- i think that the right word is just absence of confidence in the federal institutions to solve the problems that they live with every day. >> and tom, you have background here over the past 3 1/2 years as much or more than anybody because you spent the first couple of years of the president's term driving across the country. >> on main street. i'm still out there. >> on main street. well, you're always out there. you're always on main street. >> some people say i'm way out there. >> yeah. no. so anyway, but you've been hearing that for the past 3 1/2 years. and people don't really believe that all the solutions are going to come from washington, d.c. that it starts on main street. >> absolutely. they really are solving most of the problems on main street or in the states. i mean, that's where the action is now. governors and mayors and community leaders are taking it upon themselves to deal with the fund mental issues of their

economy, education, the kind of sense of confidence that they have in the country. >> so very interesting over the past weekend, mark, you had the dnc putting out video clips of a lot of people including myself saying what a great debater mitt romney is. and then there was a little bit of an online scuffle yesterday because chris christie dared to say that this debate would change the narrative of the race. what's going on here? >> well -- >> is it all about expectations? >> they play the silly expectations game because too many of our colleagues seem susceptible to it. i still think the president has an advantage simply because he's done one-on-one general election debates before, and they're a lot of pressure. and governor romney, in some ways he rises to the occasion and he's impervious to pressure. but if you look at his career at bain and some of the anecdotes there, sometimes he feels it. and no one goes into their first one as comfortable as people who have done it before. >> john heilemann, barring an

incredibly strong moment, which could happen, i guess, it has before, can the debates, do you think, especially with what we know about the impact of debates in races past really make a difference for mitt romney, and how prominent are, as mike allen pointed out in the data that the campaigns are bringing in, are the 47% comments that mitt romney made potentially as a turning point for him bringing his campaign down? >> well, i think, first of all, it's not just that there are people just tuning in. they started tuning in around the conventions. these audience numbers are going to be much larger than the convention numbers. you had, like, 30 million people watching on the big nights of the conventions. you'll have maybe as many as 50 million watching these debates. it's a lot of people really focused. romney's had a very rough run. everyone acknowledges. and he's become partly because of the 47% comment, it's reinforced the worst negative stereotypes about him. he's become part of a caricature. partly the democrats have driven that caricature. partly he's fed that caricature.

he needs to somehow break that. and i think, you know, look, you go back to the race that this one most resembles in recent time, in the 2004 race, john kerry was behind by six, seven points going into the first debate, challengers tend to get a lift in these debates because they benefit from being on stage with the president. kerry closed that gap down to about two points. he gained four or five points out of that first debate in 2004. if romney were to pick up three, four points, you'd be looking at a neck -- and it's a very tight race. no, there's precedent for that. it could happen. zbleeld be ahead actually in a lot of national polls. tom, we'll go to polls in one second. but before we do, i want to ask you, of all the debates you've watched, of all the debates you've followed, i guess since 1980, because you had kennedy in '60 and then i guess the next one was in '80 -- or '76, i'm sorry. was there a debate that changed everything other than reagan's

last debate against carter? was ford in '76 the mark? was that a game change -- how much can we expect the narrative to be changed in >> i think the first debate between al gore and george w. bush changed it because it said to the country, bush is capable of being president of the united states, and al gore is not a guy that we're comfortable with. that was the great sign debate in which he was -- >> eye rolling. >> eye rolling and sighing. he just gave off something that the people kind of rejected. and bush was folksy and seemed to be well read in. however, this discussion we're having, i always compare this to the speculation before the super bowl when all the sportscasters get together and they talk about exactly what's going to happen, and then the kickoff comes. and the game changes immediately. i do think that what governor romney has to do is stop running in the republican primary for the nomination. i think that's been a big part of this problem. he's now in a different game.

and i don't know what happened to etch-a-sketch, but he's got to broaden his view about what he can do for the country is what my judgment is. >> that's a good point. there is new polling on the presidential race this morning, as we mentioned, just two days before the candidates square off. let's take a look at "the washington post"/abc news poll. 49% of likely voters say they would vote for president obama. 47% say they would vote for mitt romney. those numbers are unmoved from early last month. in the critical swing states, though, the president's lead grows to 11 points among likely voters, 52% to 41%. in ohio, a state where early in-person voting begins tomorrow, a new "columbus dispatch" poll shows the president leading 51% to 42% among likely voters, a nine-point margin. in august that same poll had the two candidates tied at 45%. you want to look at iowa? >> we'll go to iowa in a second. but let's just start in ohio.

if you take ohio out of the republican column, john heilemann, no republican's ever won the white house without winning ohio. things become much more difficult. if you lose ohio as mitt romney, you've got to win virginia, new hampshire, colorado, you've got to win nevada. you've got to run the board, basically. >> well, remember, go back to what karl rove said at the beginning of the general election, which was this 3, 2, 1 concept, that romney had to win back big states that obama had won. he had to win back florida, had to win back north carolina, had to win back virginia, had to win ohio, and even if he had did all of that, he still had to pick up something else. he had to pick up new hampshire or iowa. so if you take out ohio and then you look at how he's running in virginia and you have to be super generous and say he comes back and takes florida, any one of those states makes it really, really, really hard. you can imagine a map without ohio on it for mitt romney, but you're doing something really bizarre map drawing. >> but mark, if mitt romney

loses ohio, and the reason why we're talking about it right now is nine points on october 1st to pick up, very hard. it can happen. you know, if, like, al gore, you have president obama losing three debates, it can happen. but let's say you lose ohio, suddenly mitt romney has to win north carolina. he has to win virginia. he has to win iowa. he has to win new hampshire. he has to win colorado. he has to win nevada. and, of course, he has to win florida, which he's losing now. by the way, if you don't win florida, we're not even having this discussion. let's talk about what we're getting for christmas. >> it's clear that in looking for a path to 270 electoral votes for romney without ohio, we're neither predicting or hoping it will happen, we're simply running the numbers. ohio is -- >> are we going to have to caveat for the rest of the year? >> almost always, just for that. the left is still a little restive. >> particularly fox news is in

on the conspiracy polls. >> closing the auto bailout, not strong support from evangelicals, and it's more of a populist state than some of these others. so he can get to 270 without ohio because there may be a rising tide that lifts all the other battleground states, it doesn't quite get him all the way there in ohio, but it does require winning pretty much 80% of the other battleground states. >> so tom, in talking to people like in ohio and other places where you get to main street and really hear what people are feeling, is there a sense that people will accept painfully slow growth as opposed to the questions that mitt romney is raising about what he brings to the table to help them? >> i think what i'm hearing is that two different levels. first of all, a lot of republicans and independents who voted for obama last time have been very disappointed in his leadership, made an early decision to go to romney and now they're having real doubts about it. i can't tell you the number of republicans i've heard from who say what's going on with this

guy? i just can't believe it. they're kind of stuck in neutral at the moment. the other piece of it is -- i don't want to impose what's going on in europe in this country, but it is, i think, emblematic of what happens when a society begins to take things away from people. and that's a large part of this campaign, about what we're facing down the road when it comes to entitlements and reforms and so on. and people want to stay with what they have. and vice presidential candidate ryan is saying, look, we're going to have to change the game big time. >> right. >> and you're seeing that reflected in the polls. people are not happy with the idea that they may have to change their medicare or social security or whatever. a very prominent businessman in new york said to me, you know, for all the past four years, government has been giving things away. now it's going to have to take some things back. that's going to be a big test. and i think you're seeing that. in ohio, the irony is, republican governor now in john

kasich, the state has begun to recover. he went through' tough patch at the beginning when he was trying to crack down on the public unions and other things. but they've kind of stabilized in ohio. and they've got a republican governor. and the beneficiary is president obama, not the republican candidate for president. >> kasich now one of the most popular governors in the country because they've come back. >> about the auto bailout, 88 counties in ohio, 82 counties that have parts suppliers that feed into the auto industry. 82 out of 88 counties feel directly the impact of the auto bailout. it's a huge thing. and on tom's point about medicare, you look at all the polling the last few weeks, the most striking thing, really the most striking thing that's happened is the gains president obama has made with seniors who have been the strongest -- the hardest, most out-of-reach demographic for him. they've moved him dramatically since the ryan selection, since medicare, bill clinton's arguments on medicare at the convention, it became central to the discussion, there's been a big shift towards obama in that

category. >> this doesn't take medicare off the table. we still have to deal with this. >> you're exactly right. medicare and medicaid are unchecked going to cripple this country. we saw erskine bowles earlier this week in chicago, tom, and i said erskine, isn't it the truth that medicare and medicaid by itself is going to consume every cent that the federal government takes in in 20 years? he said no, that's not true. he said, it's doing it right now. he said, this year alone, in the fiscal year that just ended, every dime the federal government got went to pay medicare, medicaid, social security and interest on the debt. that means everything else that on outside of medicare, medicaid, social security and interest on the debt, we borrowed from china. we borrowed from the saudis, we borrowed. we went deeper in debt. that's unsustainable.

and the fact that we're not having that discussion in this campaign depresses alan simpson, depresses erskine bowles, depresses me, depresses i'm sure you and a lot of people because you're right. in the post-war era, we've had a federal government that's been able to hand out things to people. and over the next 30 years, they'll have to start taking it back. if we don't start soon, maybe we do look like spain and greece. >> actually, i think that's the tragedy of what happened with simpson-bowles. here was a bipartisan commission. it got an extraordinary amount of bipartisan commitment to making some fundamental changes. and they made the report, and they were set aside. now, you find more and more people saying how do we get that back again? i also think it's going to require whoever wins a kind of broader coalition beyond simpson-bowles, and there are a lot of people out there who have served in the senate and business leaders saying we've got to get together. and we've got to put the pressure on the congress and on the president of the united states. these are republicans and democrats and independents alike to address that. but if you're 65 years old and you've got medicare and you're

counting on that for your health care, you're saying, i'm not in that reform. this arithmetic that you've just talked about doesn't affect me. i need my medicare check. >> right. >> tom brokaw, thank you very much. up next -- >> thank you, tom. good luck, tom, in the rocky mountain rumble. >> i kind of like that. let's see what else we get from our twitter accounts. >> we'll let you know. still ahead, republican senator john mccain. we're going to get his expectations for the first presidential debate and his thoughts on president obama's foreign policy. and in a few minutes, democratic senator chuck schumer. you're watching "morning show brewed by starbucks. ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level.

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the president's challenger said plain and simple, the president failed to level on the american people and called this a terrorist attack because you had to be concerned about another terrorist attack by al qaeda in the middle east after the president had been defeated. >> that is preposterous and

offensive. it was distributed. this president's record on terrorism takes a back seat to no one. >> this was an intelligence failure? >> no. no. this was an event, obviously, a complex event. we're only talking a matter of weeks here. and so his information was arrived at as determinations were made. that was shared with the american people. and i think, again, the focus needs to be how do we make sure that our facilities and our ambassadors and our personnel is secure going forward, and that's what the focus is on. >> 21 past the hour. a beautiful shot as the sun comes up over washington, d.c. here with us now in new york, though, republican senator from arizona, senator john mccain, on the set with us. good to have you with us. >> thank you. nice to be back. >> thank you for being back on the show. >> senator, let's talk about libya in a moment, but first let's talk about a milestone, a sad milestone that's just passed in afghanistan, the 2,000th

american killed over there fighting for their country. and it may have happened again where an afghan soldier turned their guns on us. what were your feelings when you saw that dreadful milestone pass this weekend? >> like all americans, joe, no matter how you feel about the war, incredible sorrow. at the same time that happened just a couple of days before, there was an attack on kandahar, one of our most secure bases by a group of terrorists in american uniforms that obviously had inside information. they destroyed six aircraft, about $200 million worth of aircraft. >> what's happening over there? what's happening? >> they know -- they know we're leaving. all we do is tell them that we're withdrawing and we're leaving, and they are making the appropriate adjustments. taliban prisoner, american interrogator. taliban prisoner says, you've got the watches. we've got the time.

and all this president has done is announce withdrawals. his overridden his military. >> the number of troof troops, e the generals what they wanted. >> no, they didn't. he asked for 40,000, he gave them 30,000, he announced withdrawals which they said would be much greater risk. one of the withdrawals that was not even an option that they planned on. he has consistently overridden the advice and recommendations of our military leaders and the chickens are coming home to roost there. iraq. >> so some kids that were 5 years old on september 11th, 2001, are getting killed now. listen, we have to stay as long as we stay, but -- hold on. we've been there for over a decade. how much longer do we stay? you know the american people only put up with foreign occupations for so long in wars. how much longer would a president mccain have us stay there? >> i would have a long time ago

set certain goals to be achieved associated with timing and not saying that all we're doing is leaving. and if i had seen a scenario such as this that's unwinding, i would have gotten out a lot earlier, to tell you the truth, because this is inevitable that the taliban is coming back, the i ieds continue to flow from pakistan. look, it is unraveling. you are having the worst morale kind of situation you could possibly have, in allies that you can't trust. >> and you think this is all because the president has announced a withdrawal in 2014? >> no, i think it's because he consistently overrode the recommendations of his military leaders with no military experience himself, obviously. and those military leaders, when those decisions were made, said this is going to entail greater risk. one of the withdrawals that he announced was not even one of the options recommended by the

military leadership. you don't want to trust -- and they are people he appointed. now, if you don't want to trust your military, fine. but then you take the consequences if there's a failure. and it's failing. and anybody who believes it's not failing -- >> it is failing. i just want to say, though, you know my views on afghanistan. i want to make sure. >> i'm very aware. >> and you disagree with me. i actually think the president shouldn't have tripled -- i think we should have kept it as an anti-terror campaign and our troops should have been home by now. i just want to say that for people that are watching at home, we disagree greatly on afghanistan. i think we both agree, though, at this point his policy's a failure. i think it's a failure for a different reason than you. >> joe, it's unraveling all over. in iraq, it's now al qaeda's making a comeback. the fact is that the country's splitting up into three different ethnic groups. in syria, the president finally spoke out in favor of these people, and we've had now 25 or 30,000 people massacred, and

arms are flowing in from iranians and russians. iranians are on the ground. and what do we do? we say we're going to give them communications equipment. as far as the situation in libya, and i know you want to come back around to that, mortars, heavy weapons, rocket-propelled grenades, and it's a, quote, spontaneous demonstration? and five days later -- five days later -- u.n. ambassador goes on national television on all the shows to tell people that this was the result of a spontaneous demonstration. >> we're going to get to that in just a moment. on afghanistan which is something we try to focus in on on this show because we feel it doesn't get enough attention. >> i agree. >> i want to hone in on two things that you said that i think amount to the quandary has our engagement in afghanistan, and that is the first thing you said, they know we're leaving. well, we've been there for 11 years. so of course they know we're

leaving at some point. it's the longest war -- >> let me respond to the first one. if you keep announcing that you're leaving and that you don't have a strategy for success, then did you ever hear the word victory or success? >> that's my second point, success. that's not possible in afghanistan. haven't we made that clear? how can you define success? isn't the quandary for whoever is leading this country how to get out in the least amount, with the least amount of failure as opposed to success? >> most of our military leaders -- and i agreed that if we had had a surge like we had in afghanistan and used the full amount, being able to go to both south and east, that we could have created an environment where we could leave and have them capable of carrying out their continued counterinsurgency missions. the fact is, al qaeda is on the rise throughout the middle east. the fact is that they believe that we are weak. they believe we are withdrawing. i talk to these leaders all over

the middle east. and this is part of that scenario. look at what's happened in iraq. over 4,000 young americans, and we now have al qaeda on the comeback. anyway, go ahead, willie. >> history is what it is, senator. i think a lot of us wish we weren't in afghanistan anymore, that we hadn't lost 2,000 lives. >> but there was a way out. it's not as if it was an impossible situation. almost all of us agree there was a way that we could have succ d succeeded. >> fair enough, but we are where we are. so what would you do today? why would another year, five years, ten years change afghanistan? >> i would make a decision as to whether we had a significant number of troops listening to my military leadership to remain there to carry out an environment where the afghan military are capable of carrying out those responsibilities. and if that is not politically possible or militarily possible, then he would make plans for a withdrawal. >> you believe a few more years might change the dynamic? >> not a few more years. additional troops, additional supplies, additional kinds of

efforts that we're succeeding, that were succeeding and not now. >> the lead story in "the new york times" talks about the mistake in faith in security as seen at the libyan mission. you saw david plouffe on "meet the press" still stumbling around, calling what happened an event and then a complex event. obviously, susan rice, the u.n. ambassador, coming under fire. peter king has said she should resign. do you agree with that? >> no, i don't. >> is that overstepping it? >> i think she was the messenger. she was the messenger. >> for people that aren't following this, what -- first of all, tell us what's offensive about what susan rice said five days afterwards. and then after that, can you talk about the briefing at the senate? because you have john kerry, actually, john kerry saying, you guys aren't telling us anything. >> yeah, the interesting thing was, first of all, the attack took over the place of many

hours. there's a detailed description in many morning's "new york times." i'm not schilling for "the new york times." >> sure, you are. >> there's a detailed description. there was a long operation carried out by people with mortars, with rocket-propelled grenades, pretty accurate mortars. i mean, it was obvious, and intelligence people within 24 hours were concluding what it was was a well-planned, well-orchestrated attack on our u.s. embassy which did not have sufficient security and we'll be going through that as to whether the security was there sufficiently or not. but the important thing was, it was clear that people don't bring mortars to spontaneous demonstrations. >> why is the white house still having trouble lining up their story three weeks later? >> because the white house line is, osama bin laden's dead, al qaeda's done, everything's fine in the middle east. this obviously contradicts these series of events, obviously

contradicts that campaign slogan. so the fact is that this was clearly an act of terror committed by people who were pretty well trained jihadists attached to or associated with al qaeda. and five days later, they push our ambassador out there to say this was a spontaneous demonstration. it doesn't pass the smell test. but joe, i want to emphasize to you again, because of this failed national security policy, the chickens are coming home to roost in iraq, in afghanistan, in libya and, of course, in syria which continues to cry out for our help and leadership as people continue to be massacred. >> so there are over 300 million americans. let me ask you a question about the upcoming debate. over 300 million americans and only a couple have been in your shoes where you've walked out on the stage of a presidential

debate. and i'm dead serious here. obviously, you have been through hell. no, no, as a p.o.w. for some, he's been through so -- but that's got to be a nerve -- walking out on that debate -- >> it is. >> -- that not only your political future but the future of the country depends on how you're going to perform over a 90-minute time period. can you tell us what that's like and what mitt romney must be going through right now personally? >> it's very nervous and, of course, you don't want to make some verbal gaffe that then is the story. and i think that it's pretty obvious that debates, particularly because of the republican debates that we just had, are going to get the highest probably viewership than any debates in presidential campaign history. so the first thing is you don't want to say something stupid, but you're pretty -- >> first do no harm. right? >> right. second of all, you really want to, i think, be able to respond

to your opponent. in other words, rather than just have your own line, you'd better be ready for something that your opponent says. and finally, i guess you think that the people of this country are looking for your vision. i watched your discussion earlier, and clearly mitt romney needs to describe his vision for the future of the country. there's a group of americans now, veterans now, because of this, but there's also a group of americans called walmart moms who were badly hurt by this recession, you know, the drop in average family income that are out there that i think are still gettable by the romney campaign. >> you certainly don't think it's too late. >> oh, no. oh, no. >> a good first debate performance could turn things around. >> yeah, but for him to raise the expectation, he's got to do something spectacular, those things don't happen in debates anymore, that there's a spectacular event or gaffe.

they're too well rehearsed. you want to try to not so much debate your opponent as talk to the american people and say this is my vision for the future. sometimes you get a little hung up in the back-and-forth with your opponent. and who am i to say? i lost. >> you've been there. >> but you've been there. >> around the block on this. >> it has to be nerve-racking. >> senator john mccain, thank you very much. it's good to have you back on the show. >> it's great to be back. >> come back soon. >> great to be back with you, too, jerks. willie. when we come back, we have senator chuck schumer. he joins the conversation. keep it right here on "morning joe." [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.

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okay. still ahead, "the new york times'" frank bruni and republican strategist steve schmidt. and next, senator chuck schumer is here. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks.

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at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? all right. it's 42 past the hour. welcome back to "morning joe." joining us on set, u.s. senator from new york, senator chuck schumer. >> good morning. >> and joe? >> yes. >> you are going to behave. >> i'm going to try. i'm going to try. >> he always behaves. >> well, not really, actually. >> i want to ask you what we asked senator mccain. what do you think, this weekend, 2,000 dead in afghanistan. you obviously -- you understand why we went, september 11th. >> yeah. obviously. >> but gosh, 11 years later, how much longer? >> here's what i would say. i don't see how we can succeed in afghanistan no matter what the troops unless we are going to stay there forever, a huge

drain on life and on the economy with all the money being spent because the leadership is so poor. karzai is not trusted by america. he's not trusted by his own people. and i've asked leading experts who are hawkish, can you succeed with karzai in charge? they say no. and i say what's the alternative? and they say there is none. so the answer is frankly the answer that the president has had, which is a measured withdrawal. and you know, yeah, maybe senator mccain's right. i have great respect for him. you bring in more troops. you might prolong it for another year or two, but i don't see the end game. >> we could argue about how many more troops you bring in or how you bring in more troops, but the fact remains, we've been there for 11 years. >> yeah. >> 11 years? >> exactly. >> they know that we're trying to leave. it's not like it would be breaking news if there was a discussion that perhaps they heard. >> the alternative is to say we're staying there forever because we're going to leave at some point. >> right. >> and here's the other issue. we have this huge deficit. we have crumbling infrastructure

in america, we have huge problems here, and we're a lot safer today on the afghanistan/pakistan border because of the drones. you know, it's not just that bin laden is gone. al qaeda's greatly, greatly weakened in that part of the world, so we're a lot stronger today than we were -- a lot safer from al qaeda than we were five years ago, ten years ago. so it's not that nothing has been accomplished, but having more troops stay there and try to win over the hearts and minds of the various tribes, it's tough in iraq, but it's even tougher in afghanistan. i think the president's done the rite thing, a clear deadline and we're getting out. >> to take you back home with the election coming up, what is your understanding of what the president would do in a second term to deal with the fiscal cliff and to help create jobs? >> i think you're going to see real leadership from the president from the get-go from the day after the election. i think that he believes we have to have both revenues, which is easier for a democrat to say, particularly from the high-end people, but he's quite strong on

entitlement reform. it's different than paul ryan's entitlement reform, but it's real, and it's deep. >> what does it consist of? >> well, you know, medicare, which is the biggest one, delivers great health care highly inefficiently. and you have to change the inefficiencies, and you have to change that by getting away from cost plus, you know, from fee for service and do other things. if you pay doctors a salary, just about every major health care provider that pays doctors a salary gives better health care at far less cost, whether it's kaiser permanente, very good in california, people making $300,000, $400,000, sign up. they're much cheaper than the california average and the national average. >> senator, are we talking shorthand about the fiscal cliff, if you could explain to the viewers essentially what would happen on new year's eve coming up if we don't address it and fix the problem, what would it look like? >> what would happen it would be

that taxes for everybody would go up, not just for people above $250,000. we'd have huge cuts not just in defense but across the board. and at a time when the economy is still slowly climbing out of that deep hole, it could put us right back in there, so it's very serious. i am an optimist. i think we're going to solve this problem in the lame duck, and here's why. it's sort of -- the people who have stood in the way, obviously this is my judgment, more than anybody else are the hard right republicans. but there are two groups in the senate and house of republicans. there are no more moderates, good bless susan collins, but there are mainstream conservatives like the man sitting here before me, john mccain, lamar alexander, lindsey graham, and the mainstream conservatives will want to make an agreement. and when romney embraced ryan and said i'm going the hard right way and loses the election, which if he does and it looks like he will, i believe he will, and i think by a significant margin, 52-48 or

somewhere around there, the mainstream republicans are strengthened. and i'll tell you my view, both boehner and mcconnell have a foot in each camp, hard right, mine stream, that's what they should do, they're leaders. >> you keep saying hard right. paul ryan's not hard right. ryan is telling the truth about a medicare and medicaid social security system that's going bankrupt and you know it. >> yeah, but what paul ryan does with that money doesn't put it into deficit reduction which you've been arguing for. he puts it all into tax cuts for the wealthy. >> well, the president didn't put $716 billion that he took out of medicare into deficit reduction. he put it into obamacare. isn't that just as reckless? >> no. because the president had -- we were dealing with health care at the time. the president will put significant medicare savings and tax savings, revenue increases, into deficit reduction. the hard right -- and i believe paul ryan is part of that hard right -- i think you've given

him a pass. >> i disagree. >> i know you do. but his budget does not reduce the deficit for 40 years and takes almost all the medicare money that he saves under his plan, give him credit for stepping up to the plate on that, and puts it -- and the hard thing for a republican to do, joe, and you know this better than anybody, this is not to say let's cut medicare, it's to say let's raise revenues. he hasn't. >> okay. >> except in this amorphous thing that says somehow we'll close loopholes to equal $4 trillion. which loophole? he can't name one. that's not courage. >> final question. with the new york giants who had a very rough night last night. >> i didn't sleep. >> you didn't sleep. >> we can tell you're on edge. >> as a new york jets fan -- >> you are. namath. >> i wonder, would you consider a possible trade? like give us eli. you take sanchez. >> he's not that tired. >> and tebow. >> you're a very persuasive fella. not that persuasive. >> the jets, man, what a mess.

>> what a mess. >> with sanchez, he just doesn't have it. >> he's distracted. >> mika keeps saying he's distracted because of eva longoria. >> no, no, the tebow trade. they said oh, it will give him motivation. it doesn't. when you have someone breathing over your shoulder, it makes you nervous. a quarterback has to be like eli, calm, cool, collected. i have faith in eli and the giants. >> they'll be okay. >> aww. >> eli is a great example, willie, where holtz, you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks, eli seems to be trashed by the new york press, every year he wins a super bowl. >> no more. no, they don't. >> i'm just saying. >> they did. >> he kept his head down because eli knew he had the job and he's not looking over his shoulder. >> the manning genes, they have two wonderful kids, i don't know about the others, they're calm, they're cool, they're collected. they do their job. you know, you'll talk to -- i was talking to gilbride the other day who is the offensive coach.

they would -- the linemen, the runners, the whole team would go over a cliff for eli. he's a true quiet leader. he's a great guy. >> those mannings, those two kids, they are great. the other kids, in turkish prison. >> is that true? >> no, it's in turkish prison. >> is that true? >> no, it's not true. >> first he tries to get rid of eli and then defames the family. >> when we come back, the "morning joe" football frenzy with roger bennett. we'll be right back.

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. yeah. it's a good weekend because liverpool had a good weekend. >> simmer down now. >> i'm talking the city. both won. everton fans. ronler bennett. and they're saying two minutes, there's not a chance in hell we're going get this done in 2. >> it's a euphemism for 5. >> first manu/tottenham.

>> they showed no fear. went ahead in the first minute. in the second, welsh won. he threw it. spurs, 2-0 ahead. rang in the changes. >> look at this. usa, baby. >> this is a winner. >> usa! >> a fine young american, israel moor. >> listen. this guy is phenomenal in english soccer. clint dempsey, what a guy. >> if only he used his athletic talent to be a female gymnast, we'd love this man. >> i have no idea what you're talking about. >> why? >> let's go from there. >> tottenham wins. >> chelsea. another huge win. >> american-owned arsenal. this is all about fernando torres. he's been a goal-scoring touchback. his secret.

he's asked to have an abby wambach haircut. it was not the greatest team. it with us going to be won by the team with more confidence. that is on the block, chelsea. spanish win. >> what a kick there. >> chelsea, a despicable team, but they're the early season winners. >> unbelievable. let's go now to norridge. i went up to norwich as you know. shadow chancellor. torres had a hat trick when i was there. he did it again. >> swarez. >> swarez. it looks like anne hathaway. red sox-owned. worst start of the season in 100 years. >> it doesn't matter. they're coming back. >> red sox, they're bobby

valentine. >> they're good. very good. you're very disciplined. you didn't even have everton in the lineup, but everton off to its best start i think since gingas roamed the earth. >> i don't like to ruin it. >> you look at that. joey scarborough has been saying, everton always starts slow. if they have a fast start, they're going to be going to europe. >> this is a game with economic fuel. they have absolutely no money. you have to believe in miracle, but no one gave the european golf team a chance and they won, didn't they? >> don't bring that up. >> joey right again. roger bennett, thank you. >> you ask the hardest questions about hocker. only on air do you act. >> up next. what both candidates need to accomplish in this week's first presidential debate.

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up until now, governor, he has failed to enumerate any of the deductions he would eliminate in order to make the math work on his deficit plan and tax plan. are we going to get those details in the course of the deba debate. >> you know, david? i wish you guys were as tough on the president. the president says he's going to create a million new manufacturing jobs. he doesn't say how he's going do

it. he says he's going to reduce the long-term debt by $4 trillion. he doesn't say how he's going to do it. let's be faye. governor romney has set out a direction. he's not an accountant. he's not going to go line by line through the budget like you'd like do. but let's hold the president to the same standard and criticize him as well. good morning. it's 8:00 on the east coast, 5:00 a.m. on the west coast. time to wake up, everybody, as you take a live look at new york city. back with us on set we have mark halperin and john hallman. >> mark halperin, chris christie coming in talking about the debate, also talking about how the press needs to ask tough questions of the president, but chris christie didn't get the memo that you're supposed to downplay expectations. yesterday he said his first debate was going to be game-changer. >> well, i don't think it really matters. people are making a big deal about what he said.

i think what matters is mitt romney needs to close the gap. which is you've got to believe -- he needs everyone to believe he's going to win. a lot of new polls this morning. a lot don't think mitt romney is going to win. a lot of people think the president is going to win. thing that's one of the things he needs to change in the debate. he needs to stand with the president. >> you meet more and more people talk about the first debate being the most important. yeah, with all the early bidding going on and the president taking swing states, even fox news polls showing him ahead, with all the early voting going on, with the spread being what it is in ohio, the columbus dispat dispatch poll came out, he's got do very well in this debate. i think he can do it. >> there is the possibility. he is a good debater.

we'll get to politics in just a moment, but first we have breaking news from afghanistan. local news tell us that three american troops are among the 14 killed this morning in a suicide bombing. it followed a grim milestone over the weekend where the killing of an american servicemember late saturday pushed the total number of u.s. military deaths in the 11-year war to 2,000. officials say it appears to be the result of another insider attack. there have been 52 coalition troops killed so far this year. >> willie, we've been talking about it for some time. what a milestone, what a terrible, terrible milestone and it seems the tragedy is going by the day there. the troops we're supposed to be training to take over are turning their guns on u.s. servicemen and killing them.

>> 2,000 american dead, $570 billion. we sound like a broken record. we say every time one of these stories come up, but, again, i ask is this what the next two years in change is going to look like in afghanistan? are we prepared to go through at least two more years of this with the withdrawal date of 2014? because it's not going to lost. >> we thought it might be possible to have a republican nominee. we don't have that. we have a guy mushily on his right. he needs to give the people a sense of why and what his plan is. >> there are a lot of conservatives, small government conservatives that don't think we should be spending over $2 billion a week in afghanistan, who don't think the president should have trickled down the number of troops when he had a chance to pull back and bring those troops home. a lot of conservatives believe that. i think this is a missed opportunity that and foreign policy is clearly going to be an area where mitt romney will want

to make a turn in terms of the narrative of the campaign. one other issue that is now coming into the forefront is the benghazi attack and news over the weekend that the four americans including the u.s. ambassador there who were killed according to politico, romney advisers are now split over how broadly they should hit the president over his handling of that attack and why it took so long to acknowledge that it was an act of terrorism. while some romney advisers argue they should keep their focus on the economy, politico says plans are in the works for mitt romney to deliver a major foreign policy speech shortly after wednesday's debate. what do you think about that? do you think he should do that? >> yes. i think, as i said, right after the killing, that wasn't the time to talk about this. now is the time several weeks later to talk about it. john heilemann in the new york times, mistaken faith and security before the benghazi raid. response to the june bomb raised

confidence in local guards. this benghazi story is an absolute mess. now, i think -- i heard stuart stevens has said let's focus on the economy. i think stuart stevens is right americans don't care as much about foreign affairs in the policy. several weeks after this i think its's very legitimate now that the press is going in and a couple weeks have passed now since the ambassador's death, yes, he's got a responsibility to talk about how badly the white house has bungled this. >> i think he does. inde indeed, i think the focus is a little misplaced. i think the white house is prts credible in saying that they're learning more, they didn't know what the situation was initially, that they've explained it better as they got intelligence assessments. but it all races a more fundamental question, which was why is the consulate not secure.

why is it -- as oppose to the stories afterward, these are american leaves at stake, what are the intelligence failures. those are fundamental questions. >> there were intelligence warnings. one story after another has come out over the past several weeks and you have the ambassador worrying about his own safety. and you now can't even send an fbi ajejt to investigate because benghazi is unstable. if that's the case, then where was the security before the attack? >> there are a lot of republican complaints about liberal bias in terms of this campaign. some are more credible than others. the president's mostly been covered as a candidate rather than as an incumbent whose record needs to be scrutinized and i think this is an area where there are a lot of questions that need to be answered. how are we protecting american

assets overseas and what are the goals in libya and are they being achieved in the right way. that line of argument and attack with press scrutiny and mitt romney making case should be part of the debate, and i think will be because this story does have a lot of unanswered questions. >> and, mika, as we've been saying for some time both on the air and off the air, if president was george w. bush and he had said the middle east going up in flames was a, quote, bump in the road, george w. bush would have been absolutely skewered by the press. >> at the same time is it fair to say president obama and mitt romney have seized too quickly and look loomed like a dog pulling on a leg. so let me ask you this. >> they made a fact even internally inside the romney campaign. they know now that the libyan press con wednesday was an absolute mistake. >> here's my question.

congressman peter king is calling on susan rice to step down, resign as u.n. ambassador of the u.n. and yesterday here's the response as they try and move forward and turn the page on foreign policy and attack the president. congressman paul ryan and senator john maclean both slammed the administration's handing of the deadly attack. take a look at this approach. >> the response was slow, it was confused, inconsistent. they first said it was a youtube video and spontaneous mob. we now know it was a planned terrorist attack. if this was one tragic incident, that would be a tragedy in and of itself. the problem is it's part of a bigger picture is the fact that the obama foreign policy is literally unraveling before our eyes on the tv screens. >> it interferes with what the administration is trying to explain, that the al qaeda is on the wane. >> you think it's political. >> how else could you trot out

our u.n. ambassador to say this was a spontaneous dem straegs. >> maybe they thought that at the time. >> five days later? that doesn't pass the smell test. it was either willful ignorance or abysmal intelligence. >> whether you believe him or not, senator mccain has the credibility of a war hero and experience with washington and foreign policy. how do you think paul ryan did turning the page? did that ring as true? as credible, saying that president obama's foreign policy plan is unraveling. would that work. >> there's a day and time for everything. the day after an event like that is not the time to rush out. here we are how many weeks later? >> i'm asking if it works coming from paul ryan. >> can i ask you a question? how many weeks? >> two and a half weeks. >> two and a half weeks later? i think we're good.

what did paul ryan say, willie? he said the response was slow, confused, and it is. in the middle of all this, the president thinks it's a bump in the road. i think two weeks later, not time to ask these questions? the biggest problem before was they did it the morning after all of this erupted. >> it was bad press by them. but what we pointed out early on is it was insults to americans to propose the idea that it was based on the youtube video. that people showed up with heavy weapons, rpgs and things like that as i said before to talk about a mouth breather in the united states that 3,000 people on youtube had seen. that was the insult. that wasn't the problem, that they went out publicly and said right away it was based on the video. >> bottom line, mark halperin,

you look at all the polls, americans want to get back to work and they want the economy to turn around and while this is an extraordinarily important story, i don't know that this -- as goes benghazi so goes toledo, i'm not saying it's not important but they do have a legitimate point to make hour. it's a very legitimate story. now's the time to go after it but do americans care? let me restate that. americans do care. is it going to meesh people from obama to romney? >> unlikely for two reasons. the president is still seen as strong on foreign policy. that's been ups and downs but he's strong. and also people care about the economy. i think romney has an obligation to talk about foreign policy though. and the linkage which i think is their strongest case, why do you think the next four years will be any different than the last four years? i think making it all on the

economy and arab spring is not a bad line. >> we're going to get to the polls in a moment but i'll try this on you, paul. do you think paul ryan talking about president obama's foreign policy will move people from obama to romney? >> i'm not -- i don't think paul ryan, it matters very much. but i do twhink have a sequence of things that are going to happen here and these ling up the first two things. mitt romney has a paramount goal. he must get past the debate and still have life in this campaign. if he can get through the first debate and convince republicans hi he's still in the race, not abandon him as a lost cause, have a sense that he's still in the game, he then has some options how to spend the last 35 days of the campaign. on foreign policy, the economy, prosecuting the president.

this all dpebepends on wednesda night. if he walks out with the world cob cluned that this race is over, the conservatives, the money, you're bob dole, we're going to vote on the house and senate. he's got to get past that first. just before the two candidates scare off in the debate. abc news poll, 49% of likely voters say they would vote for president obama and 47% say they would vote for mitt romney. those numbers are unmoved from early last month. >> so nalgsally we're in the margin of rohr in the poll. in the political swing states the president's lead grows. 52% to 41%. a state in early voting begins tomorrow. a new columbus dispatch poll shows the president leading 51%

to 42%. a nine-point margin. in august the same poll had the two candidates tied at 45. >> at 45. if you want to know how badly things have gone for the past month, how bad september was for mitt romney. just look at the columbus dispatch poll. he's lost nine points in ohio. it's absolutely critical that he does change the narrative, he does turn things around. you know, we always talk about -- i've always talked about 1980, we go into the final weekend, tied between reagan and carter. with all the early voting, he's got to kick start it now. let's say he wins the final two weeks, he still wins the election. you can't just win on election day anymore. it starts this week really. >> let's go to iowa where paul ryan will be campaigning today. 49% to 45%. just 2% are undecided.

those numbers are raising the stakes of the campaign. right now expectations seem to be with the president. 55% of likely voters expect him to win the debate according to polling from "the washington post" and abc news. >> okay. a poll that means absolutely nothing. >> good for romney. >> it fweesd for romney. >> underdog, yes. >> and people could be surprised simile by seeing them side by side. i mean the symbolism sof this, just him side by side with the president in terms of stature and in terms of people thinking he can win. >> when we come back, we're going to talk to new york times columnist with frank bruni. >> hamburger. >> no, it's not hamburger. >> pork chops. >> and republican strategist

steve schmidt is here. but first bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill. >> happy october to you, mika. as we go throughout the beginning of this month, look for temperatures we have a big cooldown in the middle of the country. we have two storms to deal with this morninglele let me get you out the door and the west coast forecast which is not a treat. the second storm in the southeast bringing heavy rain through tennessee into kentucky. threat of severe weather in alabama and especially georgia as we go throughout the day. specifically toward the atlantic area, may con and tallahassee, the green on this map shows you the area of rain. so far no tornado watches. this afternoon much of the area south wards of atlanta we'll have a threat of isolated tornadoes. here's the area for concerns of tornadoes and flooding concerns. forecast today, we're dry, beautiful in the northern plains. texas, we're looking nice and

refreshing behind the storm. and i've got to talk about the west coast. look how hot it is. this is october 1st. temperatures are going to be very warm today. 100s to 90s widespread all through central california. that's going to continue the start of our october. seattle, another beautiful day for you after a very dry september. have a great morning, en. you're watching "morning joe." ♪ [ male announcer ] from our nation's networks... ♪ ...to our city streets... ♪ ...to skies around the world... ♪ ...northrop grumman's security solutions are invisibly at work,

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welcome back to "morning joe" at 22 past the hour. a live look at the white house in washington, d.c. joining us we have former campaign senior strategist -- really. you're just going to walk in front of the camera? >> i thought -- >> sit down. sit down. >> you go to schmidt. >> hey, i got an idea. hey, hey, hey, hey, joe. i got an idea. why don't you sit down before we're on the air. >> you know, no can do. i can't go for that. >> you've got go back to introducing him. former campaign senior strategist and political analyst steve schmidt and columnist frank bruni about what he expects to see wednesday night on the debasement do you want me to read it? >> yeah. read it. i'm going to walk in front of

the camera. >> he says what i most want from it isn't fireworks, though i'm as big a fan of political theatre as the next hack. it's a word, one that has gone sadly out of vogue over recent decades and been mostly absent from this campaign. sacrifice. and i'm not holding my breath. the last president to make a truly robust call for sacrifice was ridiculed for it. that president, jimmy carter suggested only that we turn down our thermostats a tad and guzzle a bit less gas. then came ronald reagan who's man great contributions to america were coupled with less great ones, including idea, which has dominate ourd political discourse ever since, that we should speak only of morning in mark and that optimism, like virtue, is its own rewar. it isn't, not if it's crowds out realism. >> let's not read the whole article. you talked to erskine bowles?

>> about this? >> i'm saying we talked to him. you talked to erskine bowles, bill clinton's former chief of staff who's in the debt commission. he's scared. he's scared to death. >> about the things we can't say. >> about the fiscal cliff. what we can't say about taxes, what we can't say about cutting the taxes, what we can't say about medicate. >> you can't tell voters they're going to feel pain for anything. >> either side. >> we're not talked to as adults. we're talked to as children, which is our own fault because that's what we've shown here. when you listen to both candidates, it's leak a contest to say you'll less pain under me, you'll feel less pain under me. i don't mean to be "50 shades of grey," but you're going to feel

some pain now. i'm take some pain, but no one talks to us that way. >> we used to say when i first ran we would talk about the next generation. it's this generation, it's this january, it's markets across the globe that are going to turn on us and kill us if we don't do something about this. and what makes it so depressing is the fact that you hear democrats talk. the solution to everything is raising taxes. if we raised taxes on the rich, everything will be fine. >> there's not even a lot of people. >> and then you hear from republicans who say if we just cut 12% of the budget, everything will be fine. no, it won't. it's a joke. >> well, obama has been speaking in recent days about economic patriotism and i like the phrase and it's a uyoeuphemism for sacrifice but then you hear it's only for those making less than $250,000. we need broader sacrifices for a better tomorrow.

>> it's kind of hard to say, though, steve schmidt, wouldn't you agree, when we're hurting more than this generation. >> no doubt. i think at this time, the collapse of trust and nearly ever public institution in the country, the politicians of this generation have not met the challenges of our time. we have a generation that will come behind that may be the first generation in the history of the country that are do less well than their parents. so we live in a really difficult time. i would say this. i took my kids to a west point football game on saturday. we were up there, spent a couple hours around cadets, the culture, and you do feel good about the future of the country, because there is sacrifice being made by a lot of people in this country, just not by the political class. >> let me ask a historical question for the two of you. whenever i hear about shared sacrifice, to frank's point specifically, you think back to

the president you once served and the president you once wrote a book about. the president didn't ask for sacrifice in the wake of 9/11. who's the most recent presidential candidate who did make a call for candidate? >> i think the president, it was carter. i'm glad you brought up "w." after 9/11, to say this almost sounds like parody. he says, go shopping. >> what's interesting if we're going back into history. we constantly talk about the previous generations and reviewing them. we're supposed to review them and see the sacrifices they made so we could have a better life. why are we doing it now. >> ronald reagan and tip o'neill, made enormous cuts in

social security. you can talk about bush in 1992. you can talk about bill clinton, 1992, raising taxes, elected people like me. '95 on the house side, we cut an awful lot. it happens from time to time. but it seems like we've lost -- in all of those instances, there were big people roaming the earth in washington, d.c., that could get the demagogues and their own party and say, be quiet. cutting npr is not going to balance the budget. or, be quiet, taxing milliona e millionaires is not going to keep medicare solvent. >> i think in all of those instances that you mention, what's interesting is no one kind of said to us we're going do this and this is going to be painful. it's always done at the final hour. and we're talked to about it in a way that assures us that it's going to be pain felt in the

lightest measure possible by the least amount of people. i don't know why we can't talk about sucking it up today for tomorrow. >> sort of like afghanistan. >> we can talk about afghanistan, the debt commission, erskine bowles, allan simpson. i said this a come hours ago. americans need to know this. i said, you know 30rks years from now, medicare and medicaid will take up every cent that the government receives. erskine bowles said, no, you're doing it wrong. every penny that the government god paid for medicare, medicaid, social security and interest on the debt and nothing else. anything else we boroughed from the chinese or went deeper in debt. >> you think of the missing ethos in this country. you talk about john kennedy, he talked about the man on the moon. he said we choose these things not because they're easy but because they're hafrmtd that was

the central character. you look at these erbs that the country has to deal with. i mean to govern the country requires people who profoundly disagree with each other, can't stand the sight of each ore, to sit across the table, to make agreements, to come to compromise and govern the country. you have an entire political class who at their core function of just running the country have ceased to do it and it shows remarkable. we're all paying the proos for it. >> it's interesting. we talked to bill clinton, i think, tuesday of last week, newt gingrich of wednesday last week. to hear them talk about each other, couldn't stand about each other. newt gingrich said they could be in negotiations and fight for two hours and bill clinton would always listen, listen for one moment where they could agree on something and then it built out on that. and bill clinton was praising

the guy who impeached him and newt gingrich was praising his mortal political enemy because even though they couldn't stand each other at the time, they worked together for america's good. >> you were there in washington and it seemed to me at that time it was to show you got something done. it seems to me now the point of political survival is making sure your opponent gets nothing done, even if it mean use all get nothing done. >> exactly. >> is that -- >> and the depressing thing is -- let's say mitt romney is elected. are dim carats going to work for him? what if barack obama's re-elected? is he going to say, okay, now i'm going to go to simpson-bowles? let's talk about medicare. it's the greatest threat to our country's long-term survival. the explosive growth along with medicare. health care spending, are we going to be able to get a deal on that with republicans

demagoguing it and democrats painting horns on paul ryan on the other side. >> that's a very interesting question. politico wrote a piece about the pret who put substantial medicare cuts on the table whelp he was negotiating with john boehner. now it's demagoguing on the republicans on medicare. he's going to have to go back around again and face this if he wants to do long-term entitlement reform. he's going to have to sell the same kind of medicare cuts that he once proposed, demagogued against and go back and sell. >> it's crazy. >> not to mention the woodward book that went through, in a piece that he hopes. >> and then john boehner has to go back to his all members in congress who had 30-second ads run against him for, quote, cutting medicare, proposing to

cut medicare, and he'll say, now, listen, i know we talked about a grand bargain before, and i know that the president proposed these cuts to medicare and then he demagogued them on the campaign trail, but we need you to do it again. there's no trust in washington because of this stuff, steve. >> none, none. but, look. it's going to require politicians, some politicians may be willing to lay down their careers for the country. i know it's a rare concept, but it's a small measure of sacrifice compared to what other americans are sacrificing, including our men and women in afghanistan right now. ronald reagan talked about we don't have political enemies but political opponents. we were never able to look at each other as each o''s emmys. now we have a generation of politicians who honest to god look across the aisle and see

the differences. they don't see us as americans. they do view each other as enemies and it's having a terrible, terrible impact in being able to govern the country. we have to focus on how to make this country more competitive in ten years, 20 years. >> it's going to be hard. steve schmidt? >> i think it's fast naying that john heilemann owes five emmys to steve's very existence. >> thank you, thank you steve, thank you very much. it's a great column. >> some man love going on. frank, that's great. thank you so much. up next. they just received their star on hollywood walk of fame. we'll talk to two members of the legendary band heart next on "morning joe."

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. all right. welcome back to "morning joe." it's 40 mimtds past the hour. joining us now are the women

from heart. ann and nancy wilson, welcome to the show, ladies. their new album "fanatic" releases tomorrow. >> there's so much to talk about. >> i want to start with the star. that had to be big, the star on the walk of fame. did you ever think that was going to happen? go back to 1977. >> never thought. >> it's so surreal. >> and our kids were all there. >> were they really? >> and as soon as the official ceremony was done, they were walking, lying on top of the star, scuffing it up. they're the first ones to scuff it. >> talk about it. you have ground brakers in every -- in every genre. but you guys, when you came out in the '70s with "crazy on you," "barracuda," i think it was the first time with, wait a second,

you've got women who are playing rock like the way rock should be played. i guess it was hard to be taken seriously in such a misogynistic industry as rock 'n' roll. >> it still is. >> yeah. >> it still is. >> so is news. but anyway, how hard was it for you? >> how different is it now to back then? >> to take it seriously, like are you posing? do you really play the guitar? do you really write the songs or are you an ornament in front of a bunch of guys. we came from a really strong mom and a strong family, independent mother, working woman wo worked to self-educate and make sure we were well educated and opinionated and uppity like we are today. >> were there rock antecedents you looked up to? role models? >> i wouldn't call it rock as

much. i looked up to aretha franklin quite a bit and ann peebles and those girls, you know. i thought, boy, they can just sing the paint off the walls, but you couldn't call them rock 'n' roll singers. i guess if it was little richard, you could. >> was there a moment -- i remember reeting an interview in rolling stone where elton john said he was driving down sunset boulevard and he may have heard your song on a.m. radio and he said, oh, my god, i've made it. what was that moment for you? was it "crazy on you," kwz barracuda," when did you thiv you made it? >> maybe it was the star. >> yeah, last week. >> i was going to say, thing the star on the walk of fame is like the most literal thing that you can ever have put in your name, sunk into the ground like a holy

relic, you know, to make you actually believe it. it was kind of like going to a -- like the prom in a way. get all dressed up, float over there and be super hollywooded out. >> super hollywooded out. >> never had that much honor bestowed before. >> there's so much you could talk about, mika. you could talk about "magic" man being paid with hookers and cocaine. >> smoking pot with the family. >> going on tour. >> i like the in fact your parents didn't have a good connection but you weren't going to share yours with them. >> they were running with a kind of bohemian crowd of their own. >> very different times. >> they were trying to keep in communication with the younger generation by finding out what it was we were all so excited about. >> bridging the gap. >> why is so marijuana so

exciting? let's talking it. >> it happened once. >> it was too weird getting high with your mom. >> too weird. >> that's too weird. >> the book "kicking and dreaming: the story of heart, soul, and rock 'n' roll." you helped write the sound track for "ringing the bell." john and i are huge music freaks. we can talk in shorthand about that. we say, you know what, it sort of captures -- it sort of captures my childhood. >> well it captured mine, it captured cameron crow's who wrote it so well. it with us such a great thing to work on. there was a case of the authenticity of the stage design was put all the way through, you

know, every chord was the right chord we used in those days. and the writing was just impeccable, and i think the acting was too. and it sort of all fell together in that way that made it -- it made the -- you know, a love letter to what we all have sort of been through. >> what we all love. >> with music. >> the poker scene showed just how misogynistic rock 'n' roll was that makes your story that you broke all through that all the greater. congratulations. >> thank you. >> the new album comes out tomorrow. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> next, business before the bell. headlines with cnbc's brian sullivan. >> thank goodness he wasn't here. he would have been a flustered man. >> yeah. does your phone give you all day battery life ?

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it's 48 past the hour. time for business before the bell with cnbc's brian sullivan. brian, good morning. >> good morning. thank you very much. awesome interview, guys. fantastic stuff by heart there. i'll tell you what, their line, anything you want, we can make it happen, let's hope congress makes a pay troll tax cut extension happen. you and i talked about the fiscal cliff coming at the end of the year. it's not just income taxes. rb everybody who got a 2% payroll tax cut, suggesting it could cost a million jobs if that is expired and is not renewed, and it's going to whack the middle-class family to the tune of about a thousand dollar on average per year and that would -- remember, than the income tax debates. we've got a lot of tax stuff going on. by the way, guys, this is a huge week. what we've got on friday is the

monthly jobs number. it's not the last one before the election. we do get one on friday, november 2 nld as well, but these are still very, very big numbers. a big week culminating on the jobs data. watch the debate over taxes once congress starts to focus in on this, if they start to focus in on this, because if they don't, voters may go crazy on them. >> all right. thank you so much, brian. by the way, do you have a favorite heart song? we just had anne and nancy on. >> yeah, it's a song about you and me. how will i get you alone. >> that's great one. takes you back. >> that's the last thing i wanted to hear from him. >> all right, brian. thank you so much. come back. we have more "morning joe." what we have planned for the last ten minutes will change your life. >> yeah. >> it will change your mind. it's mind-blowing. we have no idea what it is but it will blow your mind. [ male announcer ] for the dreamers...

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jie i'm meteorologist bill karps with your business travel forecast. we have three weather stories today. two are with the storm. one existing northern new england with rainy systems and large system spreading through tennessee and all through the southeast. and the other weather story today is the heat in the west. nearly 100 degrees from phoenix all the way into los angeles. have a great day. uncer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is.

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yes, it is. "there's stylish." "there's functional." "and then, there's both." "erika tsubaki is a big fan of both." "that's what she and her team had in mind when they designed the all new ford escape." "with more cargo space than before, wrapped in a brand new body." "the tech-savvy, ready-for-adventure, all new, twenty thirteen ford escape." "it's what happens when you go further." welcome back, kids. it's time to talk about what we learned today. let's start with john heilemann. john, what did you learn today? >> the jets are just hosed. >> oh, man. >> hosed. >> okay. >> it's terrible. what did you learn, mark? >> obama wins and the fiscal

cliff is solved in november and december. that's what schumer said. >> that's good. what golden nugget will you take with you throughout the day? >> i learned that liz grod watching morns joe and she's a beautiful bride. married saturday. couldn't possibly look more beautiful. >> do you flow why she's smiling? >> she's smiling because she didn't work the overnights for about a week. >> she's in the trenches for us every day, does a great job. she had great day. she reports on saturday. now off on her honeymoon and she'll be back in a week or so. >> i'm so proud of you, liz. >> congratulations. what did you learn? >> that we need to talk about it every day and i think the headlines today drive that point home. >> our men and women in uniform that have been serving there now since the fall of 2001 have given their all, they've done a fantastic job. i'm so proud